One million were using it three months in. Remember that we’re looking at new cases per day, so in both, total cases continue to climb but Louisiana’s rate of increase is declining rapidly. The change was simple. In 2010 we launched and 25,000 people signed up the first day. Cases grow exponentially. If R0 is less than one, the epidemic spreads, but limps along and disappears before everyone becomes infected. Now let’s say you run Starbucks, and you have to decide when to close your stores in NYC. Some US states have had a succession of increasingly restrictive lockdowns. Looking at the chart and knowing the US has relatively mild measures, it’s not hard to conclude that cases will soar past China’s and end far higher. New York’s epidemic is vastly different than California’s and using a single number to describe them both is not useful. The newly developed Burbn pivoted to become Instagram. Text messages between Kevin Systrom [me] and Matt Cohler [name redacted]. The beauty of modeling is that you can decide to adjust this number based on your own beliefs if you disagree. Let’s call the beginning the day a region (country, state or city) reaches 100 cases. Instead of considering every previous day of data we have to estimate Rt, I only use the last seven days. Governments around the world have implemented a variety of similar policies, from complete quarantines to simple travel advisories. ): If you want to know the probability that multiple (independent) events are true at the same time, you have to multiply their individual probabilities. Systrom made $400 million in the deal and still remains Instagram’s CEO today. Invisible droplets, replete with virus, float towards susceptible people. Today, there are over 300 million people that use Instagram. Because we’re using Bayesian methods, the model produces something called a highest-density interval (HDI). Kevin Systrom’s net worth estimate is $1.5 billion. Now, you might point out that North Dakota looks well below 1.0 and does not have a lockdown. Now, two weeks later, Italy’s cases have ballooned to 64,000. With increasing (more social distancing), we reduce total cases and the rate of new infection. The chart above shows that Michigan (1,328), New Jersey (2,860) and Illinois (1,285) have grown far more quickly in a shorter number of days. While the measure of Rt can be abstract, it shows up in the case data. (gamma) – the rate of recovery. Random House Business; £20. During the same time, Kevin was invited to the tony conference run by an investment bank called Allen & Co. in Arizona. Once you look at this chart, you can’t unsee New York’s line. Kevin was born on December 30, 1983, in Holliston, Massachusetts, United States. As I wrote Tuesday, I believe swift quarantine measures are the only way to stay the virus’s ascent. Kevin Systrom is the 31-year-old co-founder of Instagram, the photo-sharing app that helped define a generation. These are just a handful of examples but they support the same point: any individual is unlikely to be infectious, but as you add them to groups, the chances skyrocket that there’s at least one covid19 carrier in the group. He said he enjoyed doing many different things as he was growing up. However, let’s assume there’s an equally sized group of individuals that are infectious but asymptomatic roaming out there. The company says it regularly meets with media outlets. Since I’m not an epidemiologist, it’s even more important that I explain the model’s uncertainty through ranges of values called credible intervals. This is the math of why groups are so dangerous, the chances compound as you add people even though individual probabilities are low. Why was this thing growing so quickly? This may not be perfect, and if we were very concerned we could try different values. If =0.1, infections peak on day 13 but stay under the critical limit of 10 beds. We can estimate it, and it’s the key to getting us through the next few months. While at Stanford, Systrom was accepted as one of 12 students to participate in the prestigious Mayfield Fellows Program where future entrepreneurs thoroughly study the tech industry and get hooked up with internships at tech startups. Some said it applied to company growth, too. If you flip the equation around and solve for group k, you can ask how many cases there has to be in NYC for people to have a 90% chance of knowing one person in their network who has it. It’s called Rt – the effective reproduction number. Systrom quit Nextstop after deciding to try and grow Burbn, and just two weeks later landed $500,000 in seed funding from Baseline and Andreessen Horowitz. Let’s turn to Italy. However, we can’t rely on any one day too much in trying to guess Rt, as daily case counts are imperfect due to changing testing capacity, lags in data reporting, and random chance. Surprisingly, Rhode Island, Maryland and Massachusetts sit at the top. While we cannot be sure the true Rt value is that high, this graph should give any policymaker in a non-lockdown state pause. There are two parts: These two facts are important, because they unlock the ability to compare infections that happen at different places at different times. North Dakota’s interval is so wide that it includes many possible values above 1.0—therefore we can’t safely conclude that Rt is truly below 1.0. Post author By Kevin Systrom Post date March 24, 2020 Today, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator said something you should hear: Regardless, you should watch these states over the next week. Once described as an “ultra nerd” and “geek,” Systrom graduated from Stanford University with a bachelor’s degree in management science and engineering in 2006. ... Instagram is a discussion of photo and video sharing, executed by Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger. One particular method Bettencourt & Ribeiro described in their 2008 paper, “Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases.” This solution caught my attention because it focuses on the same principles from my first post, Predicting Coronavirus Cases. As I argued in my previous post, when this happens, we need to lock down, so why not lock down now before cases grow? Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original algorithm to estimate Rt is a function of how many new cases appear each day. Maine has fewer cases than the previous examples, so the margins are wider. Systrom was also a Googler for two years working as an associate marketing manager for Gmail, Google Calendar and Google Docs. Researchers said they could not grow the virus from specimens taken 8 days after the onset of symptoms. The other variables are: There’s an issue with , however. Since we are uncertain about the future, we’d like to know how uncertain we are about the best values of and . It’d be nice to have distributions of the two parameters. The good news is that for the second straight day the number of new cases in Italy has dropped. © NextShark INC. 2018. NYU has a population of about 51,000 students. For purposes of illustration, say the average person in NYC has about 250 people in their personal network. It uses Bayesian statistics to estimate the most likely value of Rt and also return a credible interval for the true value of Rt. Kevin and Nicole Systrom's Lake Tahoe house is a new build designed with vintage characteristics. Rt is a measure of direction, not absolute size. Only an act of god (or a more reasonable national lockdown of all transit and non-essential health, food and government business banned) will give the US a fighting chance. The following graph shows the maximum safe group size given a margin of comfort using the equations above and real data from NYC cases: If you wanted to be 90% sure you didn’t run into anyone with the virus you’d stay below the red line. In an interview with The Telegraph in May, Systrom said: “The funny thing about tech is all of us founders are 20 or early-30-somethings, and, OK, we’re growing older, but nobody knows what they are doing when they are 20 or 30-something. On March 1st, you could walk freely. I’m hopeful that these predictions push policymakers, local governments and individuals to take extraordinary precautions to reduce transmission rates. If you ran the university and your margin of comfort was 90% of not having any students with COVID-19, you moved classes online at precisely the right time. It’s Easter. Each of these curves started with a ‘seed’ individual at a specific time. The US just crossed a dangerous threshold, Every infected city/area develops independently, tracing its own curve along the way. Louisiana’s cases per day peaked a week ago while Massachusetts’s continue to ascend. You can see that as cases grow, the safe group size falls precipitously – no matter your margin of comfort. When you do, some startling (and terrifying) things become clear: The first conclusion to take in: the United States now has the fastest growing mature infection on record. Not everything went well. If they evolve in predictable ways, ask yourself: why is this time is any different? Celebrity Homes – Instagram’s Founder Lake Tahoe Retreat – Take a look at the ultimate lake house owned by Kevin Systrom, Instagram’s cofounder.. Lake Tahoe, located in the Sierra Nevada is the largest Alpine lake in North America.The area, which has long attracted many visitors, is known for the magnificent landscapes and for the beauty of the crystal-blue lake. Somehow, the algorithm wasn’t reflecting the reality that Rt could be < 1.0 as well. Note, however, that “under control” does not mean good. The other week, I thought about whether this model could be applied to coronavirus. Second, these equations are helpful, but they shouldn’t be interpreted too precisely, so stay safe. The last section described four knowns: S, I, R, N. We also have three unknowns: (gamma, rate of recovery), (beta, rate of transmission) and (delta, social distancing factor) that we need to estimate. Tracking Rt also lets us know when we might loosen restrictions. Fortunately, there are many ways to this. These are the states that are clearly doing well. Maine looks to have reduced Rt below 1.0, but the gray band shows us that we cannot safely conclude we are below the safety threshold, since it’s possible that Rt is still above 1.0. Some states like California have been locked down for weeks, while others like Iowa and Nebraska continue to balk at taking action as cases rise. N is the total of all three. Take China: on January 23rd, they suspended travel and kept anyone from leaving Wuhan. That filter was X-Pro II, which still exists today, in its original form, in the app. More directly: in a group of people, what are the chances that no one has Covid-19? But don’t let the largest states get all your attention. People need to shop for food. As an investor over the past year, I started asking myself the same question of other companies as well. And by the way, we’re making world-changing companies as we do it.”. After a series of cases linked to China, Italy’s cases grew quickly. I assume, then, that the average infectious period is about 9 days (5 plus half of 8). On March 8th, when Italy had 7,375 cases, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte quarantined all of Lombardy and 14 other northern provinces. The process then repeats itself, but now your friends are the ones sniffling. What does this mean? I agree, and I’d go further: we not only need to know Rt, we need to know local Rt. He co‑founded Instagram, the world's largest photo sharing website, along with Mike Krieger. We’re all learning and making it up as we go along, in the best way possible. Some of those people will be unlucky. Families live under the same roof. Whatever they’re doing is working. Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom holds fast to the original premises of Silicon Valley: Technology can improve our lives, connecting people helps humanity, and tech guys aren’t just in it for the money. And as always, you can get in touch by email or reaching out on Twitter or Instagram @kevin. Had I known it was going to be the first photo on Instagram I would have tried a bit harder.”. […] Those were 8-10 week curves. After observing real data, it returns distributions for the unknowns. The groups evolve like this: If you’ve watched the news, the metric they track is ‘total cases’. While R0 values in the range of 3-4 as shown above mean it will spread to nearly all people in the population, a value of 1.5 might only spread to ~60% (depending on your parameter estimates). As the infected group grows, you’re more likely to run into someone sick and catch it yourself. Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom is interviewed live on stage during the 2019 SXSW Conference and ...[+] Festival at the Austin Convention Center on … Below you can see select results for Michigan, Washington and New York. A couple weeks ago, this was the target for returning to normal. This is best answered through an example using real data. He is an American by birth and has American ethnicity. Comparing Maine to the previous states is instructive. No matter your situation, it’s not safe to see lots of people right now. I have to assume shrinks over time because people are smart and distance themselves as they learn about the virus. Kevin Systrom launched photo-sharing mobile phone app Instagram in 2010. After all, California has 40 million residents – Italy has 60M. I try my best to explain what it all means. This is ‘rough’ because most people stay home if they’re sick. Surprisingly, Louisiana seems to have turned the corner decisively, even with one of the worst outbreaks. So Washington State is on their curve, they’re about two weeks ahead of New York, and so each of these have to be done in a granular way to really understand where we are. Credit: Douglas Friedman/Architectural Digest / CNN As you might expect from the co-founder of Instagram, every inch of Kevin Systrom's Lake Tahoe house would look perfectly at home on an influencer's feed. Consider Maine. DJ Kevin Systrom in the house! Kevin is the son of Douglas Systrom (father) and Diane Systrom (mother). Her father is a marketing executive at Zipcar, and her mother was Vice President of Human Resources at TJX Companies. The last conclusion, and one that I will revisit again in upcoming posts, is that it’s a mistake to analyze a country as a whole. At the moment of quarantine, there were a paltry 830 cases. Italy had nearly ten times the number of cases when China took similar action. Just two weeks later the picture was far more dire. Of all the first posts I’d write, this was the least likely. Facebook bought Instagram for $1 billion in stock and cash in 2012, and Systrom stayed on to continue running it. I suspect history will show that the early action in California saved countless lives. My goal is to share my process so that you can judge the foundation for my conclusions. But Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom rejected the offer, and the first week of April 2012, Zuckerberg called and offered to acquire the company and its 13 employees. If we don’t act at all, infections peak at 45 so we’re short by 35 beds on day 15. You can review each state in the main graphic at the top, but a denser view might be helpful, too. If we lockdown cities, cancel events, etc. Cuomo announced a stay at home order – a euphemism for shelter in place. The line between states and countries starts to blur. As of March 25th, they had 178 and 20,011 cases and populations of 884k and 8.6M respectively. In fact, the graph compresses so quickly, it’s easiest to see in log scale: An interesting overlay is what New York University (NYU) decided to do with their classes. Initially rebuffed by Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom, who wanted to build his own company, Mr. Zuckerberg revived the talks on April 5 of the following year, just as Mr. Systrom … I like to say I’m dangerous enough to know how to code and sociable enough to sell our company. I hope by sharing this work with you, you will consider Rt as the metric that can guide our analysis and decision-making. It means historians are going to be able to look back at humanity at this point in time and engage, and understand what has happened and what people were seeing.”. 7.8m Followers, 534 Following, 1,515 Posts - See Instagram photos and videos from Kevin Systrom (@kevin) From MySpace and Friendster back in the dark ages to Twitter and YouTube to Facebook and Instagram, today there are more options than ever to keep up with your friends, family, and favorite celebrities. I think this is one of the most important dynamics to understand. Only then on the 20th, Gov. Systrom interned at Odeo, the company that gave birth to Twitter. Those unlucky few infections compound quickly through this process. We first met in 2013 as neighbors in San Francisco. In almost every case, the conclusions are more dire than people currently believe. It’s static. Thank you to Jim Fisher for pointing this out. It was a mutual admiration of this place that helped lay the groundwork for my friendship with Kevin Systrom, the cofounder of Instagram, and his wife, Nicole. The SIR model defines equations that produce these graphs. Hospitals are now full of patients, cities bloom as new hotspots, and politicians wrestle with the balance of human and economic costs. I also hope that by seeing how bad this can get, we might collectively avoid the worst predicted outcomes by acting quickly and decisively. Which one was it? The key is to choose the former before being dealt the latter. For this, I decided to use pymc3, a library for probabilistic programming. While R0 is a useful measure, it is flawed in an important way: it’s static. But even in these states—the most “under control” in the nation— Rt is still far from the comfortable value of ~0.5. Cuomo dismissed the idea of a shelter in place order: “As a matter of fact, I’m going so far that I don’t even think you can do a state-wide policy.”. 'Andari Illu', a house for all in Hyderabad. I’ve kept most of the math and theory in the notebook, but I’d highly suggest diving in if you’re so inclined. However, using Bayes’ Theorem, we can take the new information we get from each day’s case count to adjust our expectation of what Rt is, getting closer to the true value as more daily data becomes available. The easiest way I know to choose and is to run a least-squares regression on the data from a given country. That being said, the model has tracked the last week very closely, and I’d personally rather have a model than no model at all. In the short run, the model is confident. Being able to compare local Rts between different areas and/or watch how Rt changes in one place can help us measure how effective local policies are at slowing the spread of the virus. So far, it’s unclear how much we’ll change though. Watching this growth, I became interested in the science of how things grow. Note that while this post focuses on the high level concepts, those who want to dig in further can find the details in this Jupyter notebook. You can aggregate regions any way you want, but you will always get a clearer picture by analyzing the component parts. At some point though, enough people have recovered that the chances of a susceptible and infected person meeting disappears. Successful companies find ways of continuing this process so that every person that joins brings at least one other person onto the service. Louisiana still has far more new cases than Washington per day, but Louisiana’s outbreak will not be growing as nearly quickly as Washington and will soon see cases decline even more rapidly. Inside the Life of The $400 Million Co-Founder of Instagram, Get regular updates from our talented staff on the latest and greatest in the Asian American community, Bhutan’s Parliament Approves Bill to Legalize Gay Sex, 20,000 Chinese American WWII Veterans Awarded With Congressional Gold Medal, Asian American Incomes See Highest Growth Over Last 15 Years, Jocelyn Yow, 25, Makes History as California’s Youngest Mayor of Color, Meet EASTERN PEOPLE, a New Clothing Collective for Asian Cultures, How a Singaporean Woman Built a $1.8 Million Apparel Brand by 24, Hello Kitty’s 92-Year-Old Founder to Pass the Business to His Grandson, Woman Gets Fired After Replying to Boss With an Emoji, Woman Gets New Mercedes, 10-Year VIP Treatment and Trip to Germany After Viral Protest. The average scenario of the model implies 1.5 million dead in the US – bested by the now widely cited Imperial College study at 2.2 million deaths. The best estimates of IFR (infection fatality ratio), are around 2%. Now that you have “day zero”, you can plot cases on a common timeline: days since 100 infections. Today, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator said something you should hear: The only data that we all have [is that] the two areas that have moved through their curve [are] China and South Korea. ** Note: In a previous version of this post I wrote that R0 > 1 meant that the virus spread to everyone in the population. Kevin and his then-girlfriend, Nicole, came over for supper after a … Pymc3 allows you to set up a model with knowns and unknowns. As discussed, we assume = 1/9 (9 days of infectiousness). Doing so will save countless lives. I’ll take a look at the trajectory of various countries and make inferences about how things will go. At the same time, I worry the hesitation–if only for a few days–in New York might be one of the largest public policy mistakes of our generation. We were walking along the beach and I said that we needed something to help us [the company] stand out. The explicit HDI helps make sure we’re not misled by the data and prematurely conclude something that might be a grave error. While this may not be a usual announcement at concerts or clubs, it actually was one of the few things Systrom loved to do: DJ-ing. Even Idaho has a wide HDI, so it’s too early to tell. Through my research, I found a model called the SIR model that applies to infectious diseases. I will analyze specific countries, like Italy, where people are looking to see the effects of a national lockdown. Today, not three days later, they passed 20,875. Over time, all states trended asymptotically to Rt = 1.0, refusing to descend below that value. It was a mutual admiration of this place that helped lay the groundwork for my friendship with Kevin Systrom, the cofounder of Instagram, and his wife, Nicole. To calculate this, add the infected and resistant groups (less how many were resistant to start with, if any). But here it’s important to consider North Dakota’s HDI. This is why it’s important to act quickly with social distancing: the safe group went from 100,000s to 100s in a few days. And his sudden love for photography, inspired from his mother, took him to the lists of millionaires. They often met each other at various gatherings at Stanford when Kevin Systrom was a student there, and after Instagram’s launch, Mark also used to hold Dinner sessions with him at his house. If you were conservative and wanted to be 99% sure, you’d be below the blue line. Sure enough, the characteristic S-curve emerges. At a party, he pitched the prototype to Baseline Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz who became interested. The SIR model attempts to explain both of these situations. If you divide the number of active cases in your location by the population in your location you obtain a rough estimate. Recent tallies imply a 4% IFR, though this is disputed because mild cases go undiagnosed. In the real world, should decrease over time as people become more aware of the virus and people avoid gatherings, work, etc. On the one hand, some pundits argued cases would whimper out within a few weeks. Remember that is the number of people an infected person infects over time. Some are more likely than others, like the red dotted average case below. In fact, if we plot the same data, but sort by the high end of the HDI (worst-case scenario) we see this: Now it’s clear that all non-lockdown states cluster on the right-hand side. When talking about his time in high school, where he attended the small but prestigious boarding school Middlesex in Massachusetts, Systrom explained: “I probably had a rougher experience because I was super-tall and nerdy and into programming, so I was by no means the cool kid … I think that’s why our company works. This is useful when it comes to policy decisions: wait until the high end of gray band is well below 1.0 before resuming normal activity. At the same time, Systrom and business partner Mike Krieger developed Burbn, an app that featured a check-in service, planning capabilities, photo-sharing and point-earning system. Even once these measures are in place, cases have taken over a week to flatten. Let I be the number of local active cases and N be the local population: To answer our original question, we take the complement (i.e. Life can begin to return to ‘normal.’ But without knowing Rt we are simply flying blind. 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